Village Stormwater Revenue Forecasts Through 2037

There are two recurring projected revenue streams to be used paying down stormwater bond issues. Council approved these starting in 2008 for the next 30 years. Click on graph for a larger image.

This chart shows a projected smooth rise in the 1/4% Home Rule Sales Tax allocated to stormwater bond debt repayment, rising from $1M in 2008 to slightly over $2.1M in 2037. Year over year the projected revenues start increasing at 2.42% and accelerate to 2.73%. Undoubtedly there will be a dip somewhere, and maybe a peak somewhere, but these seem fairly modest figures.

This chart reflects projected property tax revenues for stormwater bond repayment. The trending is similar but somewhat more accelerated, showing underlying property values of the village as a whole more than quadrupling over the next 30 years. This kind of growth is not wholly residential-based. Given the projects DG should have in the pipeline for commercial development, these cheerily optimistic estimates are not unwarranted.

So far, it seems reasonable and doable. A big economic slump hitting both retail sales and real estate values early into this 30 year cycle would have a depressing effect over the life cycle of the bonds. How internet sales are taxed, and how those sales taxes are distributed, will also impact HRST collections.

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3 Responses to “Village Stormwater Revenue Forecasts Through 2037”

  1. momathy Says:

    My sense is that both residential and commercial property will will have a difficult time quadrupling over the next 30 years. Those who need more info on housing and trends should read Robert Shiller’s work and refer to the Case-Shiller home price index found at the S&P website. The economic storm we are facing is probably in the third or fourth inning and therefore any projections should be adjusted for near term depreciation of 2-4 years and 10-15%. Just my opinion.

  2. markthoman Says:

    Looks like City Data uses Case-Shiller as a source. Thanks for the heads up; I didn’t know anything about this source.

  3. markthoman Says:

    The commercial numbers for the midwest show a rough doubling in the last 15 years. That may be one reason to project what the village did.

    I see what you mean about the residential numbers, though. The midwest plateau and decline started earlier, and is steeper, than I thought.

    The northwest section of town, where our remaining open commercial (M-1, O-R-M zoned) land exists, will be built out over the next 20-25 years, contributing to the rise in values. Pedal to the metal residential development is attractive from a tax revenue POV, but the costs for services are also the highest and tend to moderate the net upside.

    LOL, damn it Momathy now you got me thinking about it. Ah, well, thanks for the heads up!


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